热钱来袭
人民币对美元汇率本周连续两天在即期市场触及日浮动区间上限——即1%的涨停板。本月以来人民币升值速度骤然加快，虽然有美国大选影响，但更主要原因在于热钱流入又悄然抬头。相信大家还记得2007年那次大规模热钱流入，虽然刺激股市攀上6124点巅峰，但随着热钱大规模流出，股市一跌到底；热钱流入还让房价大涨，更刺激了一轮通胀让我们的钱包严重缩水。这次会重蹈覆辙吗？背景本周四，国内即期市场上人民币对美元收报6.2417元，刷新了汇改以来的最高收盘点位，同时亦创出交易波动范围扩大至1%以来的首个涨停。摩根士丹利统计，截至今年八月为止，流入香港资金规模约达1.5万亿元。德意志银行数据显示，在过去4周中，港股和A股共同基金获得总额13亿美元的资金净流入。http://img1.gtimg.com/finance/pics/hv1/85/112/1180/76758145.jpg人民币中间价创逾四个月新低 升值速度加快
2012-10-27 第709期 分享到： http://mat1.gtimg.com/view/botong/img/zt/share/t.png http://mat1.gtimg.com/view/botong/img/zt/share/qzone.png http://mat1.gtimg.com/view/botong/img/zt/share/sina.png http://mat1.gtimg.com/view/botong/img/zt/share/rr.png http://mat1.gtimg.com/view/botong/img/zt/share/kx.gif http://mat1.gtimg.com/view/botong/img/zt/share/douban.png http://mat1.gtimg.com/news/imgcss_article_qq/qqmail.png
人民币首现“涨停” 香港风云再起http://img1.gtimg.com/finance/pics/hv1/87/112/1180/76758147.jpg香港楼市热钱涌入制造危机
本周五，国内人民币对美元即期市场延续近期以来的强劲势头，开盘即封在涨停价6.2380元上，首度升破6.24元，创下1994年汇改以来新高。而事实上，人民币兑美元汇价的升值步伐自进入10月份以来已明显加速。人民币汇率为何还能“涨停”？本周四，国内即期市场上人民币对美元收报6.2417元，刷新了汇改以来的最高收盘点位，同时亦创出交易波动范围扩大至1%以来的首个涨停。周五刚一开盘，美元兑人民币就触及人民币6.2380元，再度封在涨停板上。根据央行规定，今年4月16日起，人民币对美元交易价浮动幅度由原来的5‰扩大至1%。外汇市场的波幅类似股票市场的涨停板和跌停板，也就是人民币汇率每日的波动空间是在央行公布的中间价基础上上下浮动不超过1%。目前，央行根据做市商报价设定每日的汇率中间价，中间价的走势暗含了央行对汇率的态度。交易市场价格则直接反应市场需求。以本周四人民币对美元中间价为1美元对6.3047元人民币为例，如果按1%的波动幅度计算，当日人民币交易价波动幅度为6.2417到6.3677之间。如果交易市场价格触及6.2417，就意味着人民币对美元升值至“涨停”位置。如果价格触及6.3677，则意味着人民币对美元贬值至“跌停”位置。人民币连续走高体现出全球资金近日对于发展中国家资产的需求再度高涨。欧美放水 中港着火比起近期人民币升值态势，更为凶险的是港币的升值。因为国内市场交易限制颇多，许多投资者转而在允许浮动空间更大的香港离岸市场上进行美元与人民币的兑换交易。所以资金要进中国，必须取道香港。早在今年7月27日，欧洲央行行长德拉吉表态“将不惜一切代价拯救欧元”，此言一出，对于中港而言，好比打开了潘多拉魔盒。随着9月14日美联储主席伯南克宣布美国推出QE3之后，全球资金逃离美元资产杀向中国为首的新兴市场套利成为大概率事件。香港股市首当其冲，截至本周四，在入场资金的推动下，港股持续向上录得十连升。但由于游资入市快，出手也快，本周五获利盘涌现，恒生指数下挫1.21%，周线也终结了七连升。而香港楼市也没能逃脱洗劫，尽管香港整体经济形势一般，但由于流动资金过剩，前9个月房价已经上升了20%，远远超出了香港市民承受范围。因此周五香港已经出台楼市新政，以加收印花税等措施严控外地人购房。由于资金持续流入，香港金融管理局自上周六起，四度向银行体系注资144亿元，藉此稳定港元汇价。大和证券认为，由于港元与美元挂钩，美元弱势令港元兑人民币等亚洲货币汇价下跌，入口价格上升，将为香港带来通胀问题，令市场对港元脱钩的投机情绪再度升温。摩根士丹利表示，该行根据货币基础、银行新增外汇资产计算，截至今年八月为止，流入香港资金规模约达1.5万亿元，当中三月至八月期间，只有两个月录得资金流出，七月及八月资金更加速流入，八月份流入香港资金达510亿元。逐利资金已经大军压境屯兵于香港，正对中国内地虎视眈眈磨牙吮血。而比起香港金管局的屡屡出手，中国央行却出人意料地稳坐钓鱼台采取了无为而治的策略。
不错~~~~~~
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